September 2016
Ok, let’s get this out of the way. The first thing you need to know about Colombia is how to spell it. It is spelled ColOmbia. Remind yourself by thinking how far away it is from the District of ColUmbia, and that Obama does not live here!
The second thing you need to know is that my family and I showed up here, and within the month, this country’s fortunes changed. Peace was declared between the government and their long-standing nemesis, the terrorist group FARC (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia). Colombia’s armed forces have been fighting the FARC for longer than I have been alive, and many peace processes have come and gone over the years. This war is what has kept the countryside in tatters, national parks largely pristine, and much of the jungle intact. Now everyone is wondering, “What next?”
Many worry that the FARC won’t really demobilize. People worry they will just turn to new employers, swapping Chavez and Castro for profit-loving human traffickers and other crime bosses, reaping havoc on the broader population instead of saving their ire for the country’s armed forces. It was what happened with the FMLN’s members in El Salvador after that war ended. I lived in that country while the homicide and crime rate rose sharply along with the peace. Others worry that the FARC will become a powerful political party and try to make their revolution come alive politically.
I do believe it is inevitable that crime will increase in the short-term in the wake of peace, while the government ramps up state presence in formerly abandoned areas, and while the FARC tries to sell all the coca it has been getting farmers to grow during the peace negotiations (the FARC and the narcos made a fine pair). On the other hand, I think a spiking crime rate will be short-lived, as Colombia’s institutions and armed forces are far more capable than El Salvador’s ever were, and still are. This will not become an extension of Central America. I also think that even if the FARC comes to power in a political sense, they will have a short shelf-life, not having ever learned how to truly govern or represent a population; just how to extort, manipulate and destroy.
In a way, Colombia is lucky they waited this long for peace. They now have the collective intelligence of all past post-war experiences to learn from as they attempt to demobilize this terrorist group. No one knows for sure, but the UN thinks there are maybe 10,000 terrorists out there making people’s lives miserable in Colombia. Another 35,000 have already demobilized after turning themselves in, or being captured by the government.
Having worked at a UN demobilization camp for rebels in Angola back in the 1990s and seeing how lame a demobilization process can be (a bit of training, a handout of smokes, condoms, seeds and tools, get on that bus and get outta here!), what Colombia is doing with these former soldiers is pretty intensive.
The reintegration process takes 6 years in total. The first 6 months are in a halfway house sort of camp, full of counselors, medical assistance and rigorous schedules, all with the goal of helping people figure out how they want to spend the rest of their lives. Then there is vocational and job training, more psycho-social support, caseworkers intervening with employers, mentors/group therapy, etc. Basically everything that we should be doing with returning U.S. soldiers, prisoners and people leaving the welfare rolls, if we wanted or cared to do it successfully. As per the UN’s International Office on Migration, recidivism from people passing through the demobilization program here (going back to the FARC or into illegal activities) is under 8%. Impressive. I think we could learn something from their effort.
Demobilization of the FARC is just one part of the broader peace plan, which includes infrastructure development, increased government presence in the countryside, land reform, anti-narcotic strategies, alternative development and all sorts of training for law enforcement and regional governments. The price tag for cleaning up after this war is somewhere between 2 billion and 50 billion US dollars over 10 years, depending on who you ask. But before any of this happens and the money flows, the people of Colombia need to agree to the peace. A referendum is planned for October 2.
I’ve done a quick survey with not-so-random sampling (among taxi drivers, cocktail party guests and a journalists) among Colombians and foreigners alike, and the thinking is that the voters will likely approve the peace deal with FARC in the referendum. The population is tired of only knowing war, and the President’s PR machine is well-oiled. Notwithstanding, the city’s apartment building windows are filled with signs of either “SI” or “NO”, chat groups are full of propaganda one way or another, and the airwaves describe the contents of the deal, especially what former FARC members will receive in benefits if they turn themselves in. One taxi driver scoffed to me after listening to benefits due former FARC members, “It’s enough to make me a terrorist.”
I’m excited I get to live through what happens next, and I hope I get a chance to work within Colombia to play my part in sealing the piece. What’s more, all of you reading can also contribute. Here is what you can do:
1) Come visit. The country is amazing and diverse and there is tons to do now that things are safer in the countryside. They need the investment and foreign currency, and more importantly, the marketing.
2) Buy legally-produced and/or sustainably-produced products from Colombia, like fruit, coffee, chocolate, textiles and flowers.
3) Need I state the obvious? Remind those who use cocaine to just say no. Don’t give the ex-FARC and their criminal gang accomplices any reason to cut down more rainforest to grow coca and keep the violence going here.
My sermon is over and my predictions are in. Let’s see what side of history Colombia chooses on October 2. Hasta la próxima…
